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Prediction markets have exploded into the mainstream. Once a niche curiosity, platforms like Kalshi & Polymarket now attract millions of users, turning elections, economic indicators & world events into markets on what will happen next. What are these markets, why are they suddenly everywhere, & what does it mean when we put a price on the future?
Michael Auerbach, executive chairman of the geopolitical intelligence & strategic advisory firm Lamplighter Group, talks to renowned journalist Patrick Radden Keefe - bestselling author of Say Nothing, Empire of Pain, & London Falling - about the hidden forces shaping prediction markets, & what their explosive rise reveals about power, money, politics, & our appetite for betting on the future.
In his new book, The Big Bet: Prediction Markets & the Future of Democracy, Auerbach investigates the rise of prediction markets & their growing influence on our political & civic life. He explores the promise of the wisdom of crowds alongside concerns about insider trading, manipulation & the commodification of democracy.
Auerbach & Radden Keefe share a fascination with the hidden systems that shape public life. Auerbach brings a perspective grounded in geopolitics, intelligence & risk, while Radden Keefe has built his career investigating networks of power, money & secrecy. Together, they explore how prediction markets work, who benefits from them, the high-stakes battles over their regulation, & what their growing influence reveals about the way we understand the politics of risk, information, & the future.
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